(37-35-3 against the spread this season)
By Danny Picard
BOSTON — I went 3-2 last week. It’s a big holiday weekend in the NFL, and per usual, I waited until the last minute to do my Christmas shopping. So, this is a brief edition of Pic’s Picks.
Here are my picks for Week 16:
DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings
-The 10-4 Lions got back on track with a 42-17 win over the Broncos last weekend. Now they go into Minnesota on Christmas Eve to take on a 7-7 Vikings team that has a worse record at home than they do on the road. Minnesota is 2-4 at home this season, and I don’t expect them to win this game. The spread is very low, almost too low, which makes me wonder what the deal is here. Detroit can clinch the division with a win, and that’s exactly what they’ll do, along with a cover. Give me the Lions by a touchdown.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
-It looks as if Trevor Lawrence has been cleared to play. Regardless, these two teams are going in different directions. The 8-6 Jaguars have lost three straight, while the 7-7 Buccaneers have won three straight. Both teams are in a battle to hold onto the top spot in their respective divisions. But in a game between two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, I’ll take the points for the home Bucs in a must-win game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Dallas Cowboys
-Hopefully Dak Prescott’s “HERE WE GO” doesn’t ruin your Christmas. Better yet, here’s hoping it doesn’t ruin the 10-4 Dolphins’ Christmas, because I’m taking the home team here with a low spread between two elite teams, which is basically a pick-em. The 10-4 Cowboys got whooped by the Bills last week, and so perhaps they’ve been exposed a bit. I think Dallas will keep it close, but ultimately, my money’s on Miami to take care of business at home, as they can clinch a playoff berth with a win.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
-The 9-5 Chiefs haven’t covered a spread since the end of November. That cover actually came against the Raiders in Vegas. Vegas is 6-8 and is mathematically still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but they’re hanging on by a thread. Patrick Mahomes is due for a huge game, and I think that comes on Christmas at home. Give me the Chiefs to win by two touchdowns.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5.5) over Baltimore Ravens
-It’s a Christmas night showdown between the NFL’s two No. 1 seeds. Both teams are 11-3, but I have to give the edge to San Francisco, mainly because they’re at home. I’m a little surprised the spread is anything more than 2.5 points, but I think that just goes to show you there’s a lot more money on the 49ers here. And I’m part of that majority. Give me San Francisco to win by a touchdown.
Follow Danny on instagram @DannyPicard.